New Seat Details - Coventry South and Kenilworth

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Coventry South and Kenilworth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	25,251	48.3%
LAB	21,523	41.1%
LIB	3,249	6.2%
UKIP	1,141	2.2%
Green	855	1.6%
MIN	195	0.4%
OTH	117	0.2%
CON Majority	3,728	7.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Coventry South and Kenilworth: Map

List of old seats forming part of Coventry South and Kenilworth

Old seat: Coventry North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Coventry North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Coventry North West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Coventry	Bablake	12,376	Coventry North West	3,415	3,700	197	237	97	0	139	0	7,785
Coventry	Holbrook	11,536	Coventry North West	2,589	5,192	92	269	97	0	169	0	8,408
Coventry	Radford	11,633	Coventry North West	2,619	5,859	107	265	116	0	243	0	9,209
Coventry	Sherbourne	11,136	Coventry North West	3,112	4,365	267	256	121	0	236	0	8,357
Coventry	Whoberley	10,879	Coventry North West	2,802	4,075	395	241	132	0	181	0	7,826
Coventry	Woodlands	13,156	Coventry South and Kenilworth	3,776	3,703	227	257	103	0	195	0	8,261
	Total	70,716		18,313	26,894	1,285	1,525	666	0	1,163	0	49,846

The full details of these calculations are given on the Coventry North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Coventry South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Coventry South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Coventry South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Coventry	Binley and Willenhall	11,588	Coventry East	2,259	4,732	108	201	83	0	0	30	7,413
Coventry	Cheylesmore	11,308	Coventry South and Kenilworth	2,939	3,550	228	158	85	0	0	27	6,987
Coventry	Earlsdon	11,604	Coventry South and Kenilworth	3,264	2,940	294	126	92	0	0	22	6,738
Coventry	St Michael's	9,766	Coventry North West	2,490	7,424	170	211	165	0	0	76	10,536
Coventry	Wainbody	10,670	Coventry South and Kenilworth	3,750	3,240	301	153	88	0	0	38	7,570
Coventry	Westwood	12,244	Coventry South and Kenilworth	3,226	3,987	242	187	91	0	0	30	7,763
	Total	67,180		17,928	25,873	1,343	1,036	604	0	0	223	47,007

The full details of these calculations are given on the Coventry South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Kenilworth and Southam

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kenilworth and Southam, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Kenilworth and Southam				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rugby	Dunsmore	5,618	Rugby and Southam	3,015	1,171	281	61	116	0	0	0	4,644
Rugby	Leam Valley	1,918	Rugby and Southam	1,128	284	73	16	32	0	0	0	1,533
Stratford On Avon	Bishop's Itchington	2,771	Rugby and Southam	1,577	600	174	28	49	0	0	0	2,428
Stratford On Avon	Harbury	2,649	Rugby and Southam	1,206	536	308	26	50	0	0	0	2,126
Stratford On Avon	Kineton	2,536	Stratford-on-Avon	1,290	455	155	63	48	0	0	0	2,011
Stratford On Avon	Long Itchington and Stockton	2,949	Rugby and Southam	1,482	619	194	27	25	0	0	0	2,347
Stratford On Avon	Napton and Fenny Compton	2,548	Rugby and Southam	1,305	449	188	63	23	0	0	0	2,028
Stratford On Avon	Red Horse	1,320	Stratford-on-Avon	680	208	69	31	11	0	0	0	999
Stratford On Avon	Snitterfield	13	Stratford-on-Avon	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	10
Stratford On Avon	Southam North	2,440	Rugby and Southam	1,104	706	177	74	24	0	0	0	2,085
Stratford On Avon	Southam South	2,565	Rugby and Southam	1,240	603	137	72	48	0	0	0	2,100
Stratford On Avon	Wellesbourne East	2,843	Stratford-on-Avon	1,392	574	329	74	50	0	0	0	2,419
Stratford On Avon	Wellesbourne West	2,446	Stratford-on-Avon	1,105	482	245	27	38	0	0	0	1,897
Warwick	Abbey	5,292	Coventry South and Kenilworth	2,205	1,138	675	136	115	0	0	0	4,269
Warwick	Arden	4,289	Warwick and Leamington	2,649	591	161	31	69	0	0	0	3,501
Warwick	Manor	1,356	Warwick and Leamington	549	309	163	11	26	0	0	0	1,058
Warwick	Milverton	237	Warwick and Leamington	90	61	32	2	5	0	0	0	190
Warwick	Park Hill	6,455	Coventry South and Kenilworth	3,104	1,484	573	61	140	0	0	0	5,362
Warwick	Radford Semele	2,065	Rugby and Southam	1,070	464	89	20	37	0	0	0	1,680
Warwick	St John's	6,546	Coventry South and Kenilworth	2,987	1,481	709	63	141	0	0	0	5,381
Warwick	Stoneleigh and Cubbington	4,024	Warwick and Leamington	2,022	906	189	42	83	0	0	0	3,242
	Total	62,880		31,207	13,123	4,922	928	1,130	0	0	0	51,310

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kenilworth and Southam seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Coventry South and Kenilworth

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Coventry South and Kenilworth
Coventry	Cheylesmore	10,517	Coventry South	2,939	3,550	228	158	85	0	0	27	6,987
Coventry	Earlsdon	10,144	Coventry South	3,264	2,940	294	126	92	0	0	22	6,738
Coventry	Wainbody	11,394	Coventry South	3,750	3,240	301	153	88	0	0	38	7,570
Coventry	Westwood	11,685	Coventry South	3,226	3,987	242	187	91	0	0	30	7,763
Coventry	Woodlands	12,466	Coventry North West	3,776	3,703	227	257	103	0	195	0	8,261
Warwick	Abbey	5,518	Kenilworth and Southam	2,205	1,138	675	136	115	0	0	0	4,269
Warwick	Park Hill	6,931	Kenilworth and Southam	3,104	1,484	573	61	140	0	0	0	5,362
Warwick	St John's	6,956	Kenilworth and Southam	2,987	1,481	709	63	141	0	0	0	5,381
	Total	75,611		25,251	21,523	3,249	1,141	855	0	195	117	52,331

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Coventry South and Kenilworth. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (changed seat) (CON)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,611
Turnout:	69.2%

Coventry South and Kenilworth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Coventry South and Kenilworth: Overview

Introduction